• సన్నగిల్లుతున్న ప్రధాని అవకాశం

  • 50 శాతానికి పడిపోయిన అంచనాలు

న్యూఢిల్లీ: మొత్తానికి ప్రధాని నరేంద్రమోదీ ప్రభ క్రమంగా తగ్గుతోందన్న విషయం తాజా విశ్లేషణల బట్టి అర్ధమవుతోంది. గత ఎన్నికలు (2014) నాటి పరిస్థితుల నుంచి వచ్చే ఏడాది జరగనున్న సార్వత్రిక ఎన్నికల్లో ప్రధాని నరేంద్ర మోదీ తిరిగి ప్రధాని పగ్గాలు చేపట్టే అవకాశాలు సగానికి సగం పడిపోయినట్లు తెలుస్తోంది. ఆ శాతం మరీ దారుణంగా ఉండడంతో బీజేపీ వర్గాలు కూడా ఆందోళన చెందుతున్నాయి. 2017లో 99 శాతం ఉన్న అవకాశం ప్రస్తుతం 50 శాతానికి తగ్గడం గమనార్హం.

నరేంద్ర మోదీకి వ్యతిరేకంగా విపక్షాలు ఏకమవుతుండటంతో ఆయన మళ్లీ ప్రధాని అయ్యే అవకాశాలు సన్నగిల్లాయని న్యూయార్క్‌కు చెందిన ప్రఖ్యాత ఆర్థిక విశ్లేషకులు, కాలమిస్ట్‌ రుచిర్‌ శర్మ అంచనా వేశారు. విపక్షాలు వేర్వేరుగా పోటీ చేయడంతో 2014 పార్లమెంట్‌ ఎన్నికల్లో బీజేపీకి 31 శాతం ఓట్లు దక్కాయని చెప్పుకొచ్చిన ఆయన 2019 ఎన్నికలలో పూర్తి భిన్నమైన పరిస్థితుల్లో ఎదుర్కోవాల్సి వస్తుందని అంచనా వేశారు. 2017లో యూపీ ఎన్నికల ఫలితాల ఆధారంగా నరేంద్ర మోదీ తిరిగి ప్రధాని అయ్యే అవకాశాలు 99 శాతం ఉన్నాయనే అంచనా వెల్లడైందని, అయితే, ప్రస్తుతం ఇది 50 శాతానికి పడిపోయిందని తెలిపారు. గతంలో నిట్టనిలువునా చీలిన విపక్షాలు ఇప్పుడు ఏకమవుతున్న క్రమంలో ఎన్నికలు ఏ ఒక్కరికీ అనుకూలంగా, మరీ అంత ఏకపక్షంగా జరిగే అవకాశం లేదని విశ్లేషించారు.

భారత్‌లో ప్రజాస్వామ్య పరంపరపై రుచిర్‌ శర్మ రాస్తున్న ‘డెమొక్రసీ ఆన్‌ రోడ్‌’ వచ్చే ఏడాది ఫిబ్రవరిలో పాఠకుల ముందుకు రానుంది. 1990 నుంచి భారత్‌లో పలు ఎన్నికలను ఆయన విశ్లేషిస్తూ వచ్చారు. యూపీలో బీఎస్పీ, ఎస్పీల మధ్య పొత్తు కుదిరితే రాష్ట్రంలో ఆ కూటమి అన్ని సీట్లనూ స్వీప్‌ చేస్తుందని శర్మ చెప్పుకొచ్చారు. అతిపెద్ద రాష్ట్రమైన యూపీలో విపక్షాల పొత్తు బీజేపీని దెబ్బతీస్తుందని, విపక్షాలు విడిగా పోటీ చేస్తే బీజీపీకి లాభిస్తుందని పేర్కొన్నారు. యూపీలో ఓటింగ్‌ను ఇప్పటికీ కుల సమీకరణలే నిర్ధేశిస్తున్నాయన్నారు.

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